A theory of change is a claim about cause and effect. Every link below names what it depends on and the result that would disprove it. The model is tested, not assumed.
Systems built for children end at adulthood, and the relationships inside them end on the same schedule. Then the lease asks for a credit history, a rental history, and a co-signer a young person does not have.
The chain
Six links. In order.
Each link is the condition for the next. Housing never depends on taking part in services.
1
A home, with nothing to earn first.
If
A young person referred through Coordinated Entry moves into a furnished home, with no performance conditions attached. Rent follows the housing type: none in transitional housing, and the tenant share HUD rules set in rapid re-housing and permanent supportive housing.
Then
The daily threat to survival is removed, and attention returns to planning, school, and work.
Because
A person whose housing can be taken away for falling short cannot use that housing as a place to build.
Proven wrong if
Young people in Razing the Bar housing return to homelessness at a rate no lower than the County benchmark.
2
One mentor, with no power over the home.
If
One named mentor meets the young person every week for the whole stay, and holds no authority over their housing.
Then
A relationship forms that can survive conflict and be repaired, because support is never used as a sanction.
Because
Trust cannot form with someone who can end your housing.
Proven wrong if
Young people who keep the same mentor meet their own goals at no higher rate than those whose mentor changes.
3
Real instruments, not practice.
If
Financial capability is built on real accounts: identification, a bank account, a credit file, and every benefit the young person is eligible for.
Then
The young person leaves with money, credit, and income they actually hold.
Because
Skills practiced on real accounts transfer. Skills practiced on pretend bills do not.
Proven wrong if
Identification, a bank account, and income at exit are no higher than at entry.
4
Tenancy held as a right.
If
The young person learns the rights a tenant holds under California law, from the law itself.
Then
Their home is something they hold, not something they are allowed to keep.
Because
People who know their rights can use them, including with the next landlord.
Proven wrong if
Young people cannot state the rights attached to their own tenancy at exit.
5
Daily living, done together.
If
The young person builds the everyday skills of running a home, measured by what they do, not by staff impressions.
Then
They are ready to hold a lease in their own name.
Because
Readiness is shown by doing, not judged in advance.
Proven wrong if
Household tasks done independently do not rise between entry and exit.
6
People who are not paid to be there.
If
The young person builds ties with family, chosen family, peers, neighbors, landlords, and employers, and only ties with people who are not staff are counted.
Then
Their support survives when services end.
Because
Ties to staff end when the job or the grant ends. Ties to everyone else can last.
Proven wrong if
Young people leave with no non-staff connection still present six months after exit.
The failure the model is designed against
If every tie a young person has is to staff, and services end on schedule, support ends on schedule too. That is how a return to homelessness is built.
Five outcomes
What changes. How it is counted.
1
Housing stability
Exit to permanent housing. No return to homelessness 6, 12, and 24 months after exit (HUD System Performance Measure 2).
2
Relational permanence
Non-staff connections still present after exit.
3
Social capital
Bonding, bridging, and linking ties, each counted separately.
4
Education and employment
Enrolled or credentialed. Earned and total income at entry and exit (HUD System Performance Measure 4).
5
Well-being
Health coverage active. Care connected when the young person wants it.
What we hold to
Seven rules that do not bend.
01
No readiness criteria.
The only screens are HUD’s eligibility rules. Razing the Bar states what it owes the young person first.
02
Lived experience in every peer role.
Every peer-delivered role is filled by someone with lived experience of homelessness, foster care, or the justice system.
03
Rent is set by housing type.
Transitional housing: no tenant contribution. Rapid re-housing and permanent supportive housing: the share HUD rules set.
04
Interdependence, not independence.
The aim is not a person who needs no one. It is a person who directs their own life among people who stay.
05
An activity is not an outcome.
Building ties is the activity. Ties that survive exit are the outcome.
06
Durable, in every promise.
In any promise about what survives exit, the word is durable.
07
Age governs funding, never belonging.
Grants fund specific ages. Belonging to the Razing the Bar community does not expire.
What pays for each link
What lasts is funded by people.
Federal grants fund the home and the services while a young person is enrolled. Nothing federal pays for what lasts after exit.
The ties that survive exit, the gatherings that build them, and the support that continues afterward are paid for by collaborators.
THEORY OF CHANGE
A theory you can
prove wrong.
A theory of change is a claim about cause and effect. Every link below names what it depends on and the result that would disprove it. The model is tested, not assumed.
Systems built for children end at adulthood, and the relationships inside them end on the same schedule. Then the lease asks for a credit history, a rental history, and a co-signer a young person does not have.
Six links.
In order.
Each link is the condition for the next. Housing never depends on taking part in services.
A home, with nothing to earn first.
One mentor, with no power over the home.
Real instruments, not practice.
Tenancy held as a right.
Daily living, done together.
People who are not paid to be there.
If every tie a young person has is to staff, and services end on schedule, support ends on schedule too. That is how a return to homelessness is built.
What changes.
How it is counted.
Housing stability
Exit to permanent housing. No return to homelessness 6, 12, and 24 months after exit (HUD System Performance Measure 2).
Relational permanence
Non-staff connections still present after exit.
Social capital
Bonding, bridging, and linking ties, each counted separately.
Education and employment
Enrolled or credentialed. Earned and total income at entry and exit (HUD System Performance Measure 4).
Well-being
Health coverage active. Care connected when the young person wants it.
Seven rules
that do not bend.
No readiness criteria.
The only screens are HUD’s eligibility rules. Razing the Bar states what it owes the young person first.
Lived experience in every peer role.
Every peer-delivered role is filled by someone with lived experience of homelessness, foster care, or the justice system.
Rent is set by housing type.
Transitional housing: no tenant contribution. Rapid re-housing and permanent supportive housing: the share HUD rules set.
Interdependence, not independence.
The aim is not a person who needs no one. It is a person who directs their own life among people who stay.
An activity is not an outcome.
Building ties is the activity. Ties that survive exit are the outcome.
Durable, in every promise.
In any promise about what survives exit, the word is durable.
Age governs funding, never belonging.
Grants fund specific ages. Belonging to the Razing the Bar community does not expire.
What lasts is funded by people.
Federal grants fund the home and the services while a young person is enrolled. Nothing federal pays for what lasts after exit.
The ties that survive exit, the gatherings that build them, and the support that continues afterward are paid for by collaborators.
What we cannot control.
How we report.
Outside our control
How results are reported
Definitions, 24 C.F.R. § 578.3. https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-24/subtitle-B/chapter-V/subchapter-C/part-578/subpart-A/section-578.3
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. (n.d.). System performance measures. HUD Exchange. Archived December 18, 2020, at https://webarchive.library.unt.edu/web/20201218020116/https://www.hudexchange.info/programs/coc/system-performance-measures