Too many young people reach adulthood with no one beside them.
Every claim on this page is stated so it can be checked, measured, and proven wrong. Each one names its measure, its source, and the evidence that would disprove it.
In Santa Clara County, more people are becoming homeless than are being housed. Young people who reach adulthood without a stable home and lasting relationships face a measurable risk of homelessness, and the systems built for children end before adulthood begins.
ClaimWhat we say is true
MeasureHow it is counted
SourceWhere the number comes from
Proven wrong ifThe result that would disprove it
The Evidence
Five claims, each one testable.
10,711
Claim 1 · Scale
Homelessness in Santa Clara County is growing.
10,711 people were experiencing homelessness in January 2025, up from 9,903 in 2023, an increase of 8.2%. Sheltered homelessness rose about 30%; unsheltered homelessness rose 1%.
Measure
Point-in-Time Count: people experiencing homelessness on one night in January, conducted every two years.
The next count finds fewer people homeless for a year or longer than in 2023.
8,086
Claim 4 · Young adults
Young adults make up nearly all of California’s unaccompanied youth homelessness, and most are unsheltered.
In 2025, California counted 8,086 unaccompanied children and young adults under 25. 96% were ages 18 to 24, and 57% were unsheltered. California held 23% of the national total.
Measure
Unaccompanied youth under 25 in the statewide Point-in-Time Count, by age and shelter status.
Source
KidsData (2026), using U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Point-in-Time estimates
Proven wrong if
Young adults ages 18 to 24 fall below half of the unaccompanied youth count, or fewer than half are unsheltered.
1 in 3
Claim 5 · The transition
Leaving systems of care early raises the risk of homelessness.
About a third of California youth in foster care had experienced homelessness between roughly ages 17 and 21. Nearly one in five (18%) experienced homelessness between ages 17 and 19, and youth who left care before 19 were three times more likely to experience homelessness than those who stayed.
Measure
Self-reported homelessness among California youth in foster care, linked to state child welfare records (CalYOUTH Study).
Youth who leave care early are found no more likely to experience homelessness than youth who stay.
Our Hypothesis
What we believe is missing, and how we test it.
Razing the Bar’s claim · A hypothesis, not a finding
Young people stay housed when two conditions are true at once: a stable home, and lasting relationships with people who have walked the road.
Measure
Exits to permanent housing; returns to homelessness 6, 12, and 24 months after exit; earned and total income at entry and exit.
Source
Razing the Bar records in Santa Clara County’s Homeless Management Information System, using HUD System Performance Measures 2 and 4. Results are reported on Our Impact.
Proven wrong if
Young people in Razing the Bar housing return to homelessness at a rate no lower than the County benchmark.
What the Data Doesn’t Yet Show
The gaps we’re working to close.
Young adults in Santa Clara County
The number of unaccompanied young adults ages 18 to 24 counted in Santa Clara County in 2025 is published in the County’s full Point-in-Time report and is not stated on this page.
Youth inflow
The 1.8 to 1 ratio covers all households. A young-adult-only inflow ratio for Santa Clara County is not determined.
Hidden homelessness
Point-in-Time Counts measure one night. Young people who are couch surfing or doubled up are often not counted.
How We’ll Know
The measures we report every year.
What we measure
Indicator
When
Stable, permanent housing
Exits to permanent housing; no return to homelessness (HUD System Performance Measure 2)
Exit; 6, 12, and 24 months after
Employment and income
Earned and total income (HUD System Performance Measure 4)
Entry and exit
Permanent connections
Supportive adults a young person names who would help in a crisis
Entry, every 6 months, exit
Education
Enrolled, or a credential earned
Entry, every 6 months, exit
The problem is measurable. So is the response.
See how Razing the Bar responds, and the theory we are testing.
KidsData. (2026, August 27). Thousands of young Californians face homelessness without a parent or guardian—and without shelter. https://www.kidsdata.org/blog/?m=202608
Razing the Bar, Inc. · 1400 Parkmoor Avenue, Suite 240B, San José, CA 95126 · A California nonprofit public benefit corporation and 501(c)(3) public charity · EIN 80-0441705 · Contributions are tax-deductible to the extent allowed by law.
07. The Problem
About Us
The Problem
Give Now
Too many young people reach adulthood with no one beside them.
Every claim on this page is stated so it can be checked, measured, and proven wrong. Each one names its measure, its source, and the evidence that would disprove it.
In Santa Clara County, more people are becoming homeless than are being housed. Young people who reach adulthood without a stable home and lasting relationships face a measurable risk of homelessness, and the systems built for children end before adulthood begins.
The Evidence
Five claims, each one testable.
Homelessness in Santa Clara County is growing.
10,711 people were experiencing homelessness in January 2025, up from 9,903 in 2023, an increase of 8.2%. Sheltered homelessness rose about 30%; unsheltered homelessness rose 1%.
Point-in-Time Count: people experiencing homelessness on one night in January, conducted every two years.
County of Santa Clara (2025); CBS News Bay Area (2025)
The next Point-in-Time Count finds 9,903 people or fewer.
More households become homeless than are housed.
For every household our community connects to stable housing, another 1.8 become homeless. In 2019, the ratio was 2.5 to 1.
Households entering homelessness for each household placed in stable housing, countywide, per year.
Destination: Home (n.d.), citing the Community Plan Year End Progress Report 2024
The ratio falls to 1 to 1 or below: as many households housed as become homeless.
Homelessness is lasting longer.
4,650 people in Santa Clara County had been homeless for a year or longer in 2025, a 21% increase from 2023.
People counted as chronically homeless in the Point-in-Time Count.
Local News Matters (2025)
The next count finds fewer people homeless for a year or longer than in 2023.
Young adults make up nearly all of California’s unaccompanied youth homelessness, and most are unsheltered.
In 2025, California counted 8,086 unaccompanied children and young adults under 25. 96% were ages 18 to 24, and 57% were unsheltered. California held 23% of the national total.
Unaccompanied youth under 25 in the statewide Point-in-Time Count, by age and shelter status.
KidsData (2026), using U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Point-in-Time estimates
Young adults ages 18 to 24 fall below half of the unaccompanied youth count, or fewer than half are unsheltered.
Leaving systems of care early raises the risk of homelessness.
About a third of California youth in foster care had experienced homelessness between roughly ages 17 and 21. Nearly one in five (18%) experienced homelessness between ages 17 and 19, and youth who left care before 19 were three times more likely to experience homelessness than those who stayed.
Self-reported homelessness among California youth in foster care, linked to state child welfare records (CalYOUTH Study).
Chapin Hall (n.d.); UC Berkeley TAY Hub (2025)
Youth who leave care early are found no more likely to experience homelessness than youth who stay.
Our Hypothesis
What we believe is missing, and how we test it.
Young people stay housed when two conditions are true at once: a stable home, and lasting relationships with people who have walked the road.
Exits to permanent housing; returns to homelessness 6, 12, and 24 months after exit; earned and total income at entry and exit.
Razing the Bar records in Santa Clara County’s Homeless Management Information System, using HUD System Performance Measures 2 and 4. Results are reported on Our Impact.
Young people in Razing the Bar housing return to homelessness at a rate no lower than the County benchmark.
What the Data Doesn’t Yet Show
The gaps we’re working to close.
Young adults in Santa Clara County
The number of unaccompanied young adults ages 18 to 24 counted in Santa Clara County in 2025 is published in the County’s full Point-in-Time report and is not stated on this page.
Youth inflow
The 1.8 to 1 ratio covers all households. A young-adult-only inflow ratio for Santa Clara County is not determined.
Hidden homelessness
Point-in-Time Counts measure one night. Young people who are couch surfing or doubled up are often not counted.
How We’ll Know
The measures we report every year.
The problem is measurable. So is the response.
See how Razing the Bar responds, and the theory we are testing.
Our Approach
Our Theory of Change
References
CBS News Bay Area. (2025). Santa Clara County homelessness reaches record high. https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/news/santa-clara-county-homelessness-record-high-2025
Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago. (n.d.). Researchers find association between participation in extended foster care and reduced risk of homelessness. https://www.chapinhall.org/research/calyouth-efc-homelessness/
County of Santa Clara. (2025). County of Santa Clara releases preliminary results of 2025 Point-in-Time homeless count. https://news.santaclaracounty.gov/county-santa-clara-releases-preliminary-results-2025-point-time-homeless-count
Destination: Home. (n.d.). Homelessness by the numbers. https://destinationhomesv.org/understanding-homelessness/numbers/
KidsData. (2026, August 27). Thousands of young Californians face homelessness without a parent or guardian—and without shelter. https://www.kidsdata.org/blog/?m=202608
Local News Matters. (2025, October 9). Santa Clara County’s chronic homelessness crisis worsens, data reveal troubling trends. https://localnewsmatters.org/2025/10/09/santa-clara-countys-chronic-homelessness-crisis-worsens-data-reveal-troubling-trends/
UC Berkeley Transition Age Youth Research and Evaluation Hub. (2025, September). Homelessness summary. https://tayhub.berkeley.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/TAY-Hub-Homelessness-Summary-September-2025.pdf
Razing the Bar, Inc. · 1400 Parkmoor Avenue, Suite 240B, San José, CA 95126 · A California nonprofit public benefit corporation and 501(c)(3) public charity · EIN 80-0441705 · Contributions are tax-deductible to the extent allowed by law.