08. Our Theory of Change

About Us

Our Theory of Change

A theory of change is a claim about cause and effect: if we do these things, these changes will follow. Ours is written so every link can be measured, and every assumption can be proven wrong.

a young person has a stable home first, with no conditions to earn it,
and intentional, lasting relationships with near peers who have walked the road,
and the power to choose their own goals,

then

they build the connections, skills, and income to stay housed,
they do not return to homelessness,
and they become self-sufficient, responsible adults in an interdependent community.

The Pathway

How change happens, in order.

Each stage is the condition for the next. Nothing is skipped, and housing never depends on taking part in services.

Where it starts

The problem

Unhoused or unstably housed
Few adults who stay
Systems that end at adulthood

What we do

Home and relationship

Housing through Coordinated Entry
A Community Mentor every week
Goals the young person chooses
Skills taught: I do, we do, you do

0 to 6 months

Short-term

Housed and safe
ID, bank account, health coverage
First chosen goals met
Budget in use
At least one supportive adult named

6 to 24 months

Intermediate

Income higher
Enrolled, or a credential earned
Household tasks done independently
Savings and a credit file
Wider circle of support

After exit

Long-term

Exit to permanent housing
No return to homelessness at 6, 12, and 24 months
Permanent connections
Self-sufficient, responsible adults in an interdependent community

Read left to right: each stage makes the next one possible.

North Star Outcomes

Eight outcomes, each one measurable.

Each outcome comes from the words of our mission and vision and from what young people arriving at our door need. Each has an indicator, a data source, and a point in time, so it can be shown to be true or false.

Permanent connections

Young people leaving foster care or the justice system often lose the adults who would otherwise stay with them into adulthood.

Measured bySupportive adults a young person names who would help in a crisis; at least one permanent connection at exit.

Stable, permanent housing

Homelessness and housing instability are where every road to Razing the Bar begins.

Measured byExit to permanent housing; no return to homelessness 6, 12, and 24 months after exit (HUD System Performance Measure 2).

Safety, health and healing

Trauma, physical and behavioral health, and violence shape what a young person can build.

Measured byActive health coverage; a primary care provider; behavioral health care connected when the young person wants it; a safety plan where needed.

Education

Schooling is often interrupted by placement changes and system involvement.

Measured byEnrolled, or a credential earned; FAFSA or California Dream Act application filed by the deadline.

Employment and income

Many young people arrive with little work history and low income.

Measured byEarned and total income at entry and exit (HUD System Performance Measure 4); employed or in training.

Financial capability

Identity documents, a bank account, a credit file, and savings are often missing.

Measured byIdentity documents in hand; a bank account open; a budget in use; a savings reserve; a credit file established.

Agency and life skills

Systems made decisions for them, and daily living skills were not yet taught.

Measured byGoals the young person chose that were met on their own timeline; household tasks done independently; life skills assessed at entry and every six months.

Interdependent community

Isolation, with few ties outside the systems they grew up in.

Measured byWider and bridging ties named in the young person’s plan; community, peer, or civic activities they choose; their own sense of belonging.

Using a benefit a young person is eligible for, such as Medi-Cal or CalFresh, is never counted against an outcome. In permanent supportive housing, education, employment, and income are offered, never required.

Our Assumptions

What we believe, and how we’ll know if we’re wrong.

Every theory rests on assumptions. We name ours as hypotheses, each with a test.

Hypothesis 1

Mentors with shared lived experience build trust faster.

How we test it: Each year, we compare young people’s reports of trust by whether their Mentor has related lived experience, in totals only.
Proven wrong if: After two years, there is no difference. If so, we revise the model.

Hypothesis 2

Long, consistent relationships help young people reach their goals.

How we test it: We compare goals met by young people who kept the same Mentor with those who had a change of Mentor.
Proven wrong if: Young people who change Mentors meet their goals at the same rate or better.

Hypothesis 3

A home and relationships, together, keep young people housed.

How we test it: Returns to homelessness 6, 12, and 24 months after exit, from Santa Clara County’s Homeless Management Information System.
Proven wrong if: Young people in Razing the Bar housing return to homelessness at a rate no lower than the County benchmark.

Conditions

What we hold constant, and what we can’t control.

Principles that never bend

Housing never depends on taking part in services.
Services are voluntary, and the young person sets the goals.
Meetings happen where the young person chooses.
No young person is ever named or ranked in what we report.

Outside factors

Rents and vacancies in Santa Clara County
The flow of referrals through Coordinated Entry
Benefit rules, such as Medi-Cal and CalFresh
Grant renewals and federal rule changes

Holding Ourselves to It

The rules we measure by.

Benchmarked

Housing results start at the County benchmark for each type of program.

Baselined

Every other outcome sets its baseline in fiscal year 2027 and must beat it from fiscal year 2028.

Targets only go up

The Board may raise a target, never lower one to fit a result.

No claim before proof

We don’t claim our model outperforms other programs until it is verified against primary sources.

The Problem

Why this theory exists.

The evidence on youth homelessness in Santa Clara County.

Logic Model

From resources to results.

The inputs, activities, and outputs behind each outcome.

Our Impact

What the results show.

The outcomes we measure and report every year.

References

U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. (n.d.). System performance measures. HUD Exchange. https://www.hudexchange.info/programs/coc/system-performance-measures/

Razing the Bar, Inc. · 1400 Parkmoor Avenue, Suite 240B, San José, CA 95126 · A California nonprofit public benefit corporation and 501(c)(3) public charity · EIN 80-0441705 · Contributions are tax-deductible to the extent allowed by law.